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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED OCT 03 2001
 
THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. 
POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS FOR THIS ARE THE PRESENCE OF SHEAR FROM AN 
UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM...AND 
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WEST OF 110W 
AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 
35 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND 30 KNOTS FROM SAB.  DUE TO THE WEAKENED 
APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 
30 KNOTS.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL 
WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH...THEREFORE DECREASING THE SHEAR SOMEWHAT OVER 
THE SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL STORM 
STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS.  MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL 
WESTERLY WINDS IN ABOUT 48-72 HOURS...THEREFORE THE INTENSITY WILL 
BE LEVELED OFF AT 45 KNOTS BY THIS TIME.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE
CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE...
AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME RIDGING WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
DEVELOPING NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST.  MOST NHC GUIDANCE AGREES ON A
GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION...SAVE FOR LBAR WHICH TURNS THE CYCLONE
NORTHWARD BY 72 HR.  THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A WESTWARD
MOTION AT ABOUT 8-9 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER PASCH/MOLLEDA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/1500Z 13.9N 122.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     04/0000Z 13.9N 123.9W    30 KTS
24HR VT     04/1200Z 14.2N 125.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     05/0000Z 14.4N 127.6W    40 KTS
48HR VT     05/1200Z 14.5N 129.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     06/1200Z 15.0N 132.0W    45 KTS
 
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