HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU OCT 04 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LORENA IS WEAKENING.  STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE SHEARED THE CONVECTION WELL AWAY FROM
THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER.  THE SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A
DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  THE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST...THEREFORE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST SHOWS LORENA DISSIPATING AFTER LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...GIVEN
ITS CURRENT DISORGANIZED STATE...THE SYSTEM MIGHT DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.

INITIAL MOTION IS 360/09 KT. LORENA IS EXPECTED TO TURN GRADUALLY
TO THE RIGHT AHEAD OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...JUST A LITTLE FASTER.

ALTHOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DIMINISHED...RAINFALL STILL IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN...
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS IN WHICH THE OROGRAPHY MIGHT ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

FORECASTERS PASCH/TICHACEK/MOLLEDA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/1500Z 19.0N 106.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/0000Z 20.3N 106.5W    25 KTS
24HR VT     05/1200Z 22.0N 105.8W    25 KTS
36HR VT     06/0000Z 23.5N 105.0W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
48HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN