HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED OCT 03 2001

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE STILL NOT CONCLUSIVE AS TO THE CENTER 
POSITION.  THE STORM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...WITH LITTLE OR NO 
EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES AND THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO 
THE NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  BASED ON DVORAK 
ESTIMATES...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KNOTS.  AIR FORCE 
RECON...SCHEDULED FOR 00Z TONIGHT...SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATE  SINCE LORENA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN A 
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN 
STRENGTH IS SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST. 

MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/8...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THE
CENTER IS SO POORLY DEFINED.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
ON A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH STEERING PATTERN PROVIDED BY A 500 MB LOW
OVER BAJA AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES RANGE UP TO 8 INCHES...AND THIS COULD 
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS FLOODING IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

THE 34-KT WIND RADIUS HAS BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT 
BASED ON A SHIP REPORT.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/2100Z 16.8N 106.3W    50 KTS
12HR VT     04/0600Z 18.5N 105.9W    55 KTS
24HR VT     04/1800Z 20.8N 105.3W    50 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     05/0600Z 23.5N 104.5W    30 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
48HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN