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TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED OCT 03 2001
 
THE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT IT
APPEARS THAT EARLIER POSITION ESTIMATES WERE A BIT TOO FAR TO THE
NORTH...SO THE FORWARD SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE A LITTLE
SLOWER...ABOUT 10 KNOTS.  THE POSITION ESTIMATE IS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.  ADDITIONAL VISIBLE PICTURES SHOULD GIVE A BETTER
ESTIMATE OF LOCATION.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON ARE 55 
KNOTS AND 45 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...SO THE CURRENT WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 50 KNOTS.  DEEP CONVECTION WEAKENED SOMEWHAT OVER THE 
PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THIS MAY BE A SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATION.  
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE 
UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT LORENA 
SHOULD INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST ALLOWS FOR ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY BEFORE THE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST.  HOWEVER IF THE ORGANIZATION OF 
THE SYSTEM IMPROVES LATER TODAY...THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE 
UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/1500Z 16.7N 106.5W    50 KTS
12HR VT     04/0000Z 18.2N 106.5W    55 KTS
24HR VT     04/1200Z 21.0N 106.3W    60 KTS
36HR VT     05/0000Z 24.0N 105.5W    35 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     05/1200Z...INLAND
 
 
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