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TROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE OCT 02 2001

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 30 KT
FROM TAFB AND AFWA.  SINCE THEN...THE CYCLONE HAS SHOWN FURTHER
ORGANIZATION AND IS THUS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM LORENA WITH
35 KT WINDS.  CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ORGANIZED IN A WELL-DEFINED
CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH NUMEROUS TOPS ABOVE -70C AND A FEW COLDER
THAN -80C.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE...OVER THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING TO NEAR
20N110W.  ALL GUIDANCE SAVE CLIPER RESPONDS TO THIS FEATURE BY
TURNING LORENA NORTHWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GUIDANCE
IS SOMEWHAT MORE SPREAD THAN 6 HR AGO AND SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE
LEFT.  THE AVN IS STILL THE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT...TAKING THE
STORM INLAND NEAR CABO CORRIENTES.  THE NOGAPS AND THE UKMET ARE
FARTHEST TO THE LEFT...TAKING THE STORM TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA.  A LOOK AT THE NOGAPS AND UKMET WIND FIELDS SHOW 
SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE PATH OF LORENA AT 36-72
HR...WHICH MAKE THEIR MORE NORTHWARD MOTION LOOK UNLIKELY.  THUS...
WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT IT STILL
LEANS MORE TOWARD THE AVN THAN THE UKMET OR NOGAPS.  EITHER WAY...
LORENA POSES A THREAT TO WESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA...AND
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM.
 
LORENA IS CURRENTLY UNDER SOME EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR
WHICH IS RESTRICTING OUTFLOW TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT
SEEM TO HAVE HINDERED DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.  CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL 48-72 HR...WHEN ALL LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORM WILL RUN INTO STRONG WESTERLY
SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO JUST
BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS.  LORENA
COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IF IT INTENSIFIES FASTER THAN
FORECAST EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0900Z 12.1N 103.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     02/1800Z 12.5N 104.6W    40 KTS
24HR VT     03/0600Z 13.7N 106.1W    45 KTS
36HR VT     03/1800Z 15.5N 107.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     04/0600Z 18.0N 107.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     05/0600Z 22.5N 106.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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