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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON OCT 01 2001
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS WITH THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ACAPULCO ARE 2.0 FROM SAB AND 1.5 FROM TAFB. THERE WAS ENOUGH
CURVATURE VISIBLE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN LAST LIGHT IMAGERY
TO SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND IS
NOW A DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON
THE SAB ESTIMATE. THERE APPEARS TO BE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND WINDS FROM
THE UW/CIMSS WEB PAGE SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS APPROACHING A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY LIFTING THE
CYCLONE NORTHWARD AT VARIOUS SPEEDS. THE AVN IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE
WITH THE RECURVATURE...TAKING THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST
NEAR CABO CORRIENTES IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. BOTH THE UKMET AND THE
NOGAPS KEEP THE SYSTEM FURTHER OFFSHORE. FOR THE AVN FORECAST TO
VERIFY...THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO SPEED UP IN A MANNER QUITE RARE IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF
THE AVN BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF
THE DEPRESSION. IF THE SYSTEM FOLLOWS THE UKMET/NOGAPS TRACK...THE
SYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE COLD WATER UPWELLED BY JULIETTE. ON THE
AVN TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL STAY OVER WARM WATER...BUT THIS
SCENARIO MIGHT HAVE HIGHER SHEAR. NEITHER SCENARIO LOOKS CONDUCIVE
TO TREMENDOUS STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE
GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 12.0N 102.3W 30 KTS
12HR VT 02/1200Z 12.1N 103.4W 35 KTS
24HR VT 03/0000Z 12.9N 105.0W 40 KTS
36HR VT 03/1200Z 15.0N 106.3W 45 KTS
48HR VT 04/0000Z 17.5N 106.5W 55 KTS
72HR VT 05/0000Z 22.0N 105.0W 45 KTS...INLAND
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