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TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 25 2001
 
RECENT NIGHT CHANNEL GOES-10 IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD
FIELD...WHICH SHIFTS THE INITIAL POSITION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF
THE PREVIOUS 6 HR FORECAST.  KIKO IS CURRENTLY ENTRAINING DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR FROM ITS ENVIRONMENT...AIDING IN A CONTINUED
WEAKENING TREND.  THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CYCLONE AND AS SUCH IT IS TECHNICALLY NOT CLASSIFIABLE BY
THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM MORE THAN 12 HOURS AGO
SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS AT MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  IT IS
ASSUMED THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN SPINNING DOWN SINCE THEN.
THEREFORE...KIKO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS. 
HOWEVER IF KIKO REMAINS IN ITS PRESENT STATE...DEVOID OF ANY 
CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE MAY DISSIPATE TO A REMANT LOW EVEN SOONER.

BASED ON THE LATEST FIXES...THE MOTION IS REVISED TO 270/07.  KIKO 
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.  AS A RESULT..THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE CYCLONE 
ALONG A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO 
THE PREVIOUS TRACK EXCEPT TO MOVE KIKO A BIT FASTER...CONSISTENT 
WITH THE GFDL-UKMET-AVN-NOGAPS CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 19.2N 129.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 19.0N 130.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     26/1200Z 18.8N 131.2W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.5N 132.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     27/1200Z 18.0N 133.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     28/1200Z 18.0N 136.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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