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TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON SEP 24 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH JUST
MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINING WITHIN 60-75 NM OF THE CENTER.
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KT AS DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB CONTINUE TO DECREASE.  THE SHIPS MODEL MAINTAINS KIKO
AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS BASED ON 26 DEGREE
CELSIUS SST AND RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...280/7...IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE
WEST THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH RESULTS IN AN OFFICIAL TRACK VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...I.E. A MAINLY WESTWARD COURSE AT A 
RATHER SLOW FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECASTER JARVINEN/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 19.2N 127.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 19.3N 128.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 19.3N 129.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 18.9N 131.1W    35 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 18.4N 132.8W    35 KTS
72HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N 135.6W    35 KTS
 
 
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