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TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON SEP 24 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE KIKO HAS WEAKENED AND THUNDERSTORM TOPS 
HAVE WARMED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS.  THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS 
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN 
LOWERED TO 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS T3.5...55 KT...FROM 
TAFB AND T2.5...35 KT...FROM SAB.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES 
CONTINUED WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS 
MODEL.  THE FORECAST KEEPS KIKO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM AS IT TRACKS 
ALONG 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SST. ALSO...RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR 
IS FORECAST OVER THE CYCLONE AS THE WESTERLIES REMAIN JUST TO THE 
NORTH.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/07.  THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A 
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWING KIKO TO TRACK TO THE WEST 
AND WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE CURRENT TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 
AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECASTER JARVINEN/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 19.2N 126.6W    55 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 19.3N 127.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 19.3N 129.1W    45 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 19.1N 130.8W    40 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 18.6N 132.4W    35 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 18.1N 135.2W    35 KTS
 
 
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