HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON SEP 24 2001
 
THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION OF KIKO HAS CONTINUED TO TIGHTEN UP DURING 
THE PAST 6 HOURS.  MICROWAVE DATA FROM A 24/0449Z SSMI OVERPASS 
CLEARLY INDICATED THAT A CLOSED 20NM DIAMETER EYE WAS PRESENT. AN 
EYE FEATURE ALSO BRIEFLY BECAME EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY AT ABOUT 
THE SAME TIME. THEREFORE...KIKO IS MADE A HURRICANE ON THIS ADVISORY 
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE AND 
A DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KT..CI4.0...FROM 
TAFB. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FAIR TO GOOD...BUT IS NOW ELONGATED 
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/08.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. MOST OF THE NHC 
MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON TAKING KIKO WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF 
DUE WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NOGAPS IS THE SOUTHERNMOST OF ALL 
THE MODELS AND TAKES KIKO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE THE LBAR AND DEEP BAM MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE 
SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTWARD.  OVERALL...THOUGH...THERE IS MUCH BETTER 
CONVERGENCE AMONG THE MODELS ON THIS RUN THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL 
RUNS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE AVN MODEL.
 
KIKO HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO THE WEST.  THE INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR...DECREASING
SSTS...AND THE LIKELY ENTRAINMENT OF THE STABLE LOW CLOUDS
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF KIKO.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL KEEPS THE
INTENSITY OF KIKO BETWEEN 62 TO 58 KT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 19.1N 125.9W    65 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W    65 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 19.5N 128.6W    60 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 19.3N 130.2W    55 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 18.8N 131.8W    50 KTS
72HR VT     27/0600Z 18.0N 134.5W    45 KTS
 
 
NNNN