HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2001
 
THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION OF KIKO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST 3 TO 6 HOURS.  MICROWAVE DATA FROM A 23/2219Z SSMI OVERPASS
INDICATED A SMALL RAGGED EYE WAS PRESENT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
60 KT IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE PATTERN AND A BLEND OF DVORAK
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT..CI4.0...AND 55
KT...CI3.0...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.  THE OUTFLOW
PATTERN IS FAIR TO GOOD...BUT IS ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/07.  KIKO HAS SLOWED DOWN A 
LITTLE BIT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...POSSIBLY DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION 
AND REGENERATION OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION.  REGARDLESS...ALL 
OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON TAKING 
KIKO WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST 
PERIOD.  THE ONLY OUTLIERS ARE LBAR AND THE DEEP BAM MODELS...WHICH 
TAKE THE CYCLONE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS WERE 
IGNORED BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH 
AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY 
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE AVN MODEL.

DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO THE 
WEST...THIS MAY BE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT BURST OF CENTRAL DEEP 
CONVECTION.  ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 
HOURS...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT DUE TO INCREASING 
SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE.  IF KIKO IS GOING TO 
REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DO SO IN 
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BASICALLY 
MAINTAINS KIKO AT 56 TO 58 KT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0300Z 18.6N 125.4W    60 KTS
12HR VT     24/1200Z 18.8N 126.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     25/0000Z 18.9N 128.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     25/1200Z 18.9N 129.4W    55 KTS
48HR VT     26/0000Z 18.8N 130.8W    50 KTS
72HR VT     27/0000Z 18.5N 133.0W    45 KTS
 
 
NNNN