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TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS STABLE AIR ENTRAINING AROUND THE WESTERN 
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF KIKO. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS 
LIMITED TO SOME BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  IT APPEARS THAT 
KIKO IS ENTERING AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STRENGTHENING HAS 
STOPPED. A STEADY STATE OR A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS.  SOME INTERMITTENT BURST OF CONVECTION MAY SRILLL 
OCCUR.
 
KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST ABOUT 10 TO 11 KNOTS.  A COUPLE OF 
MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IT APPEARS THAT THESE TROUGHS ARE NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO TURN KIKO NORTHWARD AND WILL ONLY WEAKEN THE WESTWARD
STEERING.  A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS INDICATED IN AGREEMENT WITH 
DYNAMICAL MODELS.  
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 18.4N 125.1W    55 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 18.5N 127.0W    55 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 18.5N 129.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 18.5N 130.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 18.5N 131.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N 132.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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