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TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KIKO HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY 
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IT CONTINUES TO HAVE AN AREA OF VERY DEEP 
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER BUT THE OUTFLOW IS A LITTLE RESTRICTED ON 
THE WEST SIDE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KNOTS AND SOME STRENGTHENING 
IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 
REACHES COOLER WATERS.

KIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 9 KNOTS.  A COUPLE OF MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IT APPEARS THAT THESE TROUGHS ARE NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO TURN KIKO NORTHWARD AND WILL ONLY WEAKEN THE WESTWARD
STEERING.  THEREFORE... A CONTINUED GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK IS INDICATED.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODELS
WHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...KEEPING KIKO ON A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 18.3N 123.7W    55 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 18.5N 125.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 18.5N 126.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 18.5N 127.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 18.5N 128.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N 130.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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