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TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2001
 
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 
HOURS...WHILE THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS TIGHTENED UP SLIGHTLY.   
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT BASED ON A DVORAK 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT...T3.0...FROM BOTH TAFB AND 
SAB...AND THE TIGHTER INNER-CORE CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS 
GOOD IN THE WEST SEMICIRCLE AND IS IMPROVING TO THE EAST AS THE 
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/09.  KIKO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON A WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ALL OF
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS
NHC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE MODELS
DIVERGE BETWEEN TRACKS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND TO THE NORTHWEST.
LBAR AND THE DEEP BAM MODELS TAKE KIKO TO THE NORTHWEST AND ARE
CONSIDERED THE OUTLIER MODELS WHEN COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO AN AVN-UKMET-NOGAPS 
CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN CLOSE TO THE AVN SOLUTION 
AFTER THAT.

THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS KIKO UP TO 65 KT IN 36 HOURS...AND 
THIS TREND WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
HOWEVER...BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING 
INTO AN EXTENSIVE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS FIELD TO THE WEST. THIS 
WILL ACT TO START AT LEAST A SLOW WEAKENING TREND...EVEN THOUGH THE 
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 26C SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. 
IF THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS GET ENTRAINED SOONER THAN FORECAST... 
THEN KIKO WILL NEVER GET THE OPPORTUNITY TO REACH HURRICANE 
STRENGTH.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0900Z 18.2N 122.6W    50 KTS
12HR VT     23/1800Z 18.4N 123.8W    55 KTS
24HR VT     24/0600Z 18.7N 125.2W    60 KTS
36HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N 126.9W    65 KTS
48HR VT     25/0600Z 19.3N 128.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     26/0600Z 19.3N 130.6W    55 KTS
 
 
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