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TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2001
 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS FURTHER INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT...T3.0...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE WEST SEMICIRCLE AND IMPROVING TO
THE EAST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09.  IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLIER
JOG TO THE NORTHWEST HAS FLATTENED OUT TO MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWEST
OR EVEN WESTWARD MOTION NOW.  THE MORE RECENT WESTWARD MOTION MAY BE
DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER UNDER THE DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT KIKO IS A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP
CIRCULATION NOW.  ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON THE TAKING
KIKO IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 48 HOURS.
THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT KIKO IS SOUTH OF THE DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA WESTWARD TO AT LEAST 130W LONGITUDE...BASED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMMS SATELLITE WINDS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND JUST NORTH OF THE AVN
MODEL SOLUTION...BUT IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS MODEL.

SINCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...  SOME FASTER
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR NOW THAT THE CENTER IS NO LONGER
EXPOSED ON THE EAST SIDE.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS KIKO UP
TO 61 KT IN 36 HOURS...AND THIS INTENSIFICATION TREND WAS FOLLOWED
CLOSELY GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 26C SSTS
THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KIKO COULD REACH
MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER...AFTER THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD TO
THE WEST AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT THE ONSET OF SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.

FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 18.1N 121.6W    45 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 18.4N 122.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 18.8N 123.9W    55 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 19.1N 125.4W    60 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 19.3N 126.9W    60 KTS
72HR VT     26/0000Z 19.5N 129.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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