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TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2001
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES ARE NOW ALL AT 
OR ABOVE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO 
TROPICAL STORM KIKO.  THE CYCLONE IS IN AN EASTERLY SHEARING 
ENVIRONMENT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF 
THE CENTER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT SUGGEST AN IMPRESSIVE 
OUTFLOW PATTERN.  THE SHIPS MODEL IS EVIDENTLY NOT IMPRESSED BY THE 
SHEAR AND BRINGS KIKO TO 60 KT IN 48 HOURS.  KIKO IS CLOSE TO THE 
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD AND MAY SOON BE INGESTING MORE STABLE AIR FROM 
THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE 
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS TOUGH TO FIND EVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY...IT 
IS CLEARLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE 310/13.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT 
AS IT HAD BEEN EARLIER.  THE BAROTROPIC MODELS CONTINUE KIKO ON TO 
THE NORTHWEST...THE AVN TAKES THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST... 
WHILE THE GFDL AND UKMET SHOW A WESTERLY TRACK WITH AN ULTIMATE TURN 
TO THE SOUTHWEST.  WITH NO OBSERVATIONS ANYWHERE NEAR THE CYCLONE IT 
IT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE RELATIVE MERITS OF THE VARIOUS MODEL 
SOLUTIONS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL 
POSITION...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE AVN...WHICH HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY 
WELL IN THE EASTPAC.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 18.0N 120.8W    40 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 18.7N 122.2W    45 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 19.3N 124.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 19.6N 125.4W    50 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 20.0N 127.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     25/1800Z 20.5N 129.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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