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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2001
 
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE LOCATION AND MOTION OF
THE DEPRESSION.  IT APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST...AND
PERHAPS MUCH MORE SO THAN INDICATED WITH THIS ADVISORY.  DAYLIGHT
IMAGERY IS LIKELY TO REQUIRE A RELOCATION THIS AFTERNOON.  I HAVE 
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TRACK ABOUT 120 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THIS TRACK IS NEAR THE AVN/UKMET CONSENSUS.  

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM
SAB...BUT I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW WHERE THE CENTER IS BEFORE UPGRADING
THE SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL STORM.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT
IS GETTING SQUEEZED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AND
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SUGGESTS SOME EASTERLY SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE
SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR PROHIBITIVE AND THE WATER IS STILL WARM...SO
SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 17.0N 119.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 17.6N 121.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 18.2N 123.2W    45 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 18.7N 124.7W    45 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 19.0N 126.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 19.5N 128.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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