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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2001
 
INFRARED AND NIGHTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT 
TROPCIAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...
BUT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE 
DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12. THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS CALLS 
FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL 
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK 
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL 
GUIDANCE SUITE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE RTACKING 
WESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL HIGH 
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
 
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HOURS. 
AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER SSTS AND 
WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF 
AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0900Z 16.1N 119.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     22/1800Z 16.3N 120.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     23/0600Z 16.6N 123.2W    45 KTS
36HR VT     23/1800Z 17.0N 125.4W    50 KTS
48HR VT     24/0600Z 17.4N 127.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     25/0600Z 18.5N 131.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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