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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 21 2001
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION...CIRCULATION
AND OUTFLOW TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. IN FACT...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.
THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS
PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
OVER COOLER WATERS AND UNDER INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL.
INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND IS VERY
CLOSE TO LBAR.
FORECASTER AVILA/COBB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0300Z 15.8N 118.1W 30 KTS
12HR VT 22/1200Z 16.0N 120.3W 40 KTS
24HR VT 23/0000Z 16.3N 122.7W 45 KTS
36HR VT 23/1200Z 16.6N 124.7W 50 KTS
48HR VT 24/0000Z 17.0N 127.0W 55 KTS
72HR VT 25/0000Z 18.0N 130.5W 55 KTS
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