ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2001 AFTER A BRIEF SPURT OF DEEPER CONVECTION THIS MORNING...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER OF JULIETTE HAVE DECREASED. RADAR DATA FROM THE YUMA WSR-88D IS ALSO INDICATING LESS ORGANIZATION OF THE RAIN BANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KNOTS AS THE CENTER REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS JULIETTE MOVES INLAND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PENINSULA...WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST OVER THE COOLER PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE GETTING TO THE PACIFIC. JULIETTE HAS TURNED MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 230/5. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LARGER-SCALE DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONE...WHICH IS BEING PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...AND A LITTLE SLOWER...THAN THOSE OF THE NOGAPS ...MEDIUM BAM...AND CLIPER MODELS. FORECASTER PASCH/MOLLEDA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 30.3N 114.6W 30 KTS 12HR VT 03/0600Z 29.8N 115.3W 25 KTS...INLAND 24HR VT 03/1800Z 28.7N 116.2W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN