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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE OCT 02 2001
 
RECENT SATELLITE DATA IS SHOWING SOME MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING 
AROUND THE CENTER OF JULIETTE...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  
RADAR DATA FROM THE YUMA WSR-88D IS INDICATING THAT THE HIGHER 
REFLECTIVITIES ARE TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER.  DOPPLER  
VELOCITIES ARE IN THE 35-50 KT RANGE WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE.  UNLESS 
THE CONVECTION DRAMATICALLY STRENGTHENS...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD 
REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 12 
HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KNOTS AND THIS IS THE 
EXPECTED INTENSITY AT LANDFALL.  

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/3.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE 
CONTINUES TO BE QUITE DIVERGENT...REFLECTING A WEAK STEERING REGIME.  
JULIETTE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND 
THE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST DRIFT...
FOLLOWING THE SHALLOW TO MEDIUM-LAYER STEERING.  JULIETTE IS 
FORECAST TO CROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND 
DISSIPATE OVER THE COOL PACIFIC WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE PENINSULA.  
IN FACT...JULIETTE COULD BE SO DISRUPTED BY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF 
THE BAJA PENINSULA THAT IT MAY NOT SURVIVE THE CROSSING.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/MOLLEDA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/1500Z 30.6N 114.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     03/0000Z 30.6N 114.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     03/1200Z 30.4N 115.6W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     04/0000Z 30.0N 117.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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