ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE OCT 02 2001 RECENT SATELLITE DATA IS SHOWING SOME MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING AROUND THE CENTER OF JULIETTE...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. RADAR DATA FROM THE YUMA WSR-88D IS INDICATING THAT THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES ARE TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER. DOPPLER VELOCITIES ARE IN THE 35-50 KT RANGE WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE. UNLESS THE CONVECTION DRAMATICALLY STRENGTHENS...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KNOTS AND THIS IS THE EXPECTED INTENSITY AT LANDFALL. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/3. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE DIVERGENT...REFLECTING A WEAK STEERING REGIME. JULIETTE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND THE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST DRIFT... FOLLOWING THE SHALLOW TO MEDIUM-LAYER STEERING. JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO CROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND DISSIPATE OVER THE COOL PACIFIC WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE PENINSULA. IN FACT...JULIETTE COULD BE SO DISRUPTED BY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THAT IT MAY NOT SURVIVE THE CROSSING. FORECASTER AVILA/MOLLEDA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 30.6N 114.2W 30 KTS 12HR VT 03/0000Z 30.6N 114.6W 30 KTS 24HR VT 03/1200Z 30.4N 115.6W 25 KTS...INLAND 36HR VT 04/0000Z 30.0N 117.5W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED NNNN