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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON OCT 01 2001
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION 
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF 
JULIETTE...WITH AMPLE BANDS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION.  THIS EVENING THE 
LOW FINALLY BEGAN GENERATING A LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION... 
ENOUGH TO REQUALIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS ARE LIMITED...AND THE SYSTEM RATES NO BETTER THAN A 1.0 
DVORAK CLASSIFICATION.  THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 12Z HAD SOME 
RAIN-FLAGGED 25 TO 30 KT VECTORS...SO I AM SETTING THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY TO 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/3.  JULIETTE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD 
MID-LEVEL LOW...SO STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK.  THIS LOW IS FORECAST 
BY BOTH THE AVN AND UKMET TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 
DAY OR TWO.  THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN JULIETTE TO THE WEST.  THE 
MID-LEVEL LOW PROBABLY WILL ALSO LIMIT OUTFLOW FROM THE FAIRLY 
SHALLOW CYCLONE...AND WITH THE SYSTEM SO CLOSE TO LAND...NO 
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.  IF IT SURVIVES THE PASSAGE 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...VERY COLD WATER AWAITS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0300Z 30.5N 113.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     02/1200Z 30.8N 113.1W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     03/0000Z 31.0N 113.7W    25 KTS...OVER WATER
36HR VT     03/1200Z 30.8N 114.8W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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