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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED INLAND
ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST ABOUT 20 NM NORTH OF TIBURON ISLAND...WHILE
THE MID-LEVEL CENTER HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA SOUTHWEST OF TIBURON ISLAND.  THE RESULT IS THAT THE
WINDS HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND
JULIETTE IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/10.  WHILE THERE REMAINS A LOW
PROBABILITY OF RE-INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE MID-LEVEL CENTER STILL
REMAINS OVER WATER...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WOULD REDEVELOP DUE TO THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.  MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD OVER THE COLD
WATER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  HOWEVER...THE
UKMET MODEL TAKES THE REMNANTS NORTHWESTWARD INTO SW ARIZONA AND
DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM THERE...AND THIS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN 
THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE APPROACHING DEEP TROUGH FROM 
THE WEST.

STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION AND THE
ENTRAINMENT OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AS SEEN IN
01/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM TUCSON AND SAN DIEGO.  HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN RATHER TIGHT BETWEEN THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE U.S.  CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE...AND ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...RATHER BRISK FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED DRY MICROBURST
ACTIVITY WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM.

THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM JULIETTE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ENHANCE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.


FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0300Z 29.9N 112.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
12HR VT     01/1200Z 31.0N 113.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING OVER LAND
24HR VT     02/0000Z...DISSIPATED OVER LAND
 
 
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