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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2001

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CLOUD CENTER THAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY 
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES.  EVEN THOUGH SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS ARE EQUIVOCAL...PRUDENCE DICTATES THAT WE ASSUME A 
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER EXISTS...BUT IT HAS RE-FORMED NEAR THE 
DEEPER CLOUDS.  TO ACCOMMODATE THE ABOVE FACTORS WE ARE USING A 
LONGER-TERM...ABOUT 18 H...INITIAL MOTION OF 12 KNOTS.   JULIETTE 
APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS 
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE LEFT WITH TIME.  THE TRACK 
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS.

SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND MOST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE 
SYSTEM IS STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  AN OBSERVATION OF 40 KNOTS 
FROM SANTA ROSALIA WAS NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS AND SUBSEQUENT 
OBSERVATIONS FROM THAT SITE...OR WITH THE CONTEMPORANEOUS CLOUD 
PATTERN.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT 
TERM WHILE JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SEA OF 
CORTEZ...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RE-STRENGTHENING.  
LATER ON...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED EITHER DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND 
OR COOLER WATER.

AN ALTERNATE INTERPRETATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS 
FROM GUAYMAS MEXICO IS THAT A LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED 
NORTHEASTWARD INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  IF THAT IS THE CASE...THE 
SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY SOON.  IN ANY EVENT 
JULIETTE...OR ITS REMNANT...IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. 
RADAR DATA SHOWS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE BEGINNING TO 
SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ARIZONA BORDER.

FORECASTER PASCH/RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/2100Z 28.7N 112.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     01/0600Z 29.9N 112.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     01/1800Z 31.0N 114.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     02/0600Z 31.3N 116.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     02/1800Z 31.0N 117.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     03/1800Z 30.5N 119.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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