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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 30 2001
 
THE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT IS SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS 
TRACK...NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST OF 
SANTA ROSALIA.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN CONCERNS HERE.  FIRST...THE 
CONTINUATION OF HEAVY RAINS...WHICH ARE NOW MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST 
MAINLAND MEXICO.  INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS SOME COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS 
IN THIS AREA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE SECOND IS THE POSSIBILITY 
THAT THE CENTER WILL EMERGE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SEA OF 
CORTEZ ...AND RE-STRENGTHEN.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE 
EAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...BUT NOT QUITE OVER 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  VISIBLE PICTURES AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE 
DATA THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP TO CLARIFY THE SITUATION.

CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLOWLY NORTHWARD.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE 
WEAK..AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  LATER 
IN THE PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE 
NORTH OF JULIETTE AND A TURN TO THE WEST.  HOWEVER THE ONLY WE SEE 
FOR JULIETTE TO LAST MORE THAN A COUPLE OF DAYS IS FOR IT TO TAKE A 
SLOW AND STEADY TRACK UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH SEEMS A SLIM 
POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.

MOISTURE FROM JULIETTE...SEEN SPREADING NORTHWARD ON SATELLITE 
IMAGES...IS NOW BEING DETECTED BY U.S. WSR-88D RADAR AS 
PRECIPITATION ECHOES WITHIN ABOUT 50 N MI SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/NEW 
MEXICO BORDER.  

FORECASTER PASCH/RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/1500Z 25.6N 112.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     01/0000Z 26.5N 112.0W    25 KTS
24HR VT     01/1200Z 27.8N 112.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     02/0000Z 28.8N 113.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     02/1200Z 29.2N 115.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     03/1200Z 29.0N 117.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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