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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 30 2001
 
JULIETTE IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE NEAREST CONVECTION 100 
MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT 
LAND AREAS.  SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 AND 35 
KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A FEW RAIN 
FLAGGED 35 KNOT WINDS AND THE REST ARE BELOW 35 KNOTS.  JULIETTE IS 
DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  VERTICAL SHEAR...COLDER 
SSTS...AND PROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD CONTINUE THE WEAKENING PROCESS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 340/4.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL 
SHOWS THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE FORWARD 
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE SLOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK 
FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVN...GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS 
MODELS...GRADUALLY TURNING THE MOTION WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER LEVEL FLOW. 

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND WESTERN TEXAS.
THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.
 
ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA.

EVEN THOUGH JULIETTE HAS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION...IT WILL TAKE A 
WHILE FOR THE 12 FT SEAS TO SUBSIDE.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 25.0N 112.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 25.8N 112.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 27.0N 113.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     01/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     02/0600Z 28.6N 115.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     03/0600Z 28.5N 116.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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