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TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2001

JULIETTE IS NOW A TOTALLY EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS...
WITH THE NEAREST CONVECTION...SUCH AS IT IS...AWAY FROM THE CENTER
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  CIUDAD DE CONSTITUCION REPORTS A
999 MB PRESSURE ABOUT 55 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON THIS AND THE WEAKENING TREND
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 320/5.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH HAS FORMED NEAR AND WEST OF JULIETTE...WHICH HAS
SHEARED OFF THE TOP OF THE STORM.  THUS JULIETTE SHOULD BE STEERED
BY THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE BAMM AND BAMS.
THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS DO INDICATE A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN
WOULD PLACE JULIETTE OVER NORTHERN BAJA OR THE NORTHERN GULF OF
CALIFORNIA.  HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS OCCUR JULIETTE WOULD BE VERY
WEAK BY THE TIME IT GOT THAT FAR.

THE LACK OF CONVECTION WOULD BE ENOUGH BY ITSELF TO MAKE JULIETTE
WEAKEN.  ADD TO THAT THE 20C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IT WILL
SOON BE OVER AND THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS FORECAST
BY ALL LARGE-SCALE MODELS...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN RATHER
QUICKLY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR JULIETTE TO WEAKEN TO
A DEPRESSION IN 24 HR OR LESS...AND TO A LOW BY 48 HR.  IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT RE-DEVELOPMENT EVEN IF THE CENTER DOES MOVE OVER THE WARM
GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
 
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS SPREAD OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND WESTERN TEXAS.
THIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

12 FT SEA RADII WERE REVISED ON THE BASIS OF 14 AND 16 FT SEAS 250
TO 300 NM SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0300Z 24.5N 112.1W    40 KTS
12HR VT     30/1200Z 25.1N 112.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     01/0000Z 26.1N 113.4W    30 KTS
36HR VT     01/1200Z 26.9N 114.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     02/0000Z 27.5N 115.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     03/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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