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TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2001
 
WIND SHEAR...DRY AIR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND...HAVE WEAKENED
JULIETTE WHICH NOW CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND 
A FEW TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45
KNOTS...ALTHOUGH STRONGER WINDS MAY STILL OCCUR AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE ALREADY MENTIONED PARAMETERS...COOL 
WATER WILL BEGIN TO BE A PLAYER FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING. 

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS A LITTLE 
TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION. JULIETTE APPEARS TO BE MOVING 
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 4 KNOTS.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BRINGING THE 
WEAKENING CENTER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA.  THEREAFTER...JULIETTE 
OR ITS REMNANTS WILL LIKELY MOVE TOWARD THE WEST STEERED BY THE 
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. 

THE WEAKENING OF JULIETTE WILL DECREASE THE WIND PROBLEM FOR BAJA 
CALIFORNIA BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE.
 
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS REACHED ALMOST TO
30N OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND MAY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/2100Z 24.2N 111.8W    45 KTS
12HR VT     30/0600Z 25.0N 112.3W    40 KTS
24HR VT     30/1800Z 26.0N 113.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     01/0600Z 26.7N 114.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     01/1800Z 27.5N 114.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     02/1800Z 27.5N 116.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW 
 
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