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TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2001

IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER ON IR IMAGES.  IT
APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF JULIETTE HAS BEEN MEANDERING SINCE
YESTERDAY OR DRIFTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  DATA FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA...AND RAOB FROM LA PAZ SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS VERY
NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST.  INTERACTION WITH LAND APPEARS TO HAVE
WEAKENED JULIETTE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KNOTS.
STRENGTHENING IS NOT INDICATED UNLESS...UNEXPECTLY...THE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS EAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT 
SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING 
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO 
THE NORTH AND JULIETTE COULD TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER COOL 
WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS...MAINLY THE AVN 
AND THE GFDL.  HOWEVER...A FEW TRACK MODELS BRING JULIETTE NORTHWARD 
OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTES. IF THIS IS THE 
CASE....A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF 
THE MAINLAND MEXICO.
 
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS REACHED ALMOST TO
30N OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND MAY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/1500Z 23.8N 110.6W    55 KTS
12HR VT     30/0000Z 24.0N 110.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     30/1200Z 24.5N 110.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     01/0000Z 25.0N 111.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     01/1200Z 26.0N 112.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     02/1200Z 26.5N 114.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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