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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2001
 
IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  RECENT
SSMI AND TRMM PASSES SUGGEST THE CENTER IS LOCATED AT ABOUT THE SAME
POSITION AS 6 HOURS AGO AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY.  THE 
00Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFING NORTHEASTWARD 
FROM CALIFORNIA AND THE HURRICANE REMAINING TRAPPED BETWEEN RIDGING 
ON ALL SIDES.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A SLOW NORTH TO 
NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS 
A CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS AND IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY.  THE BAMDEEP...LBAR AND STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE 
OUTLYERS SHOWING A NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...BUT THIS IS 
RELATED TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND MOST LIKELY INDICATES 
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR RATHER THAN A STORM MOTION. 
 
A SYMMETRIC COLD CDO HAS DEVELOPED AND SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 65 AND 77 KNOTS FROM SAB AND TAFB.  THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS KEPT AT 65 KNOTS SINCE PART OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER
MOUNTAINOUS BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR.  A 
COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...COLDER SSTS...AND PROXIMITY 
TO MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ARE THE BASIS FOR FORECASTING SLOW WEAKENING. 
A RECENT PHONE CALL FROM CABO SAN LUCAS REPORTS LIGHT DRIZZLE AND 
WINDS BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  ABOUT THE SAME CONDITIONS ARE 
REPORTED FROM LA PAX.  SO HURRICANE WINDS AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN ARE 
CONFINED TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA AND INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO LIFT THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE 
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS REACHED ALMOST TO
30N OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND MAY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0900Z 23.5N 110.8W    65 KTS
12HR VT     29/1800Z 24.0N 111.3W    65 KTS
24HR VT     30/0600Z 24.8N 112.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     30/1800Z 25.6N 112.4W    50 KTS
48HR VT     01/0600Z 26.3N 113.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     02/0600Z 27.5N 114.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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