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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 28 2001
 
IR IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED
CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF CURVED
CLOUD BANDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER WITH A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS. T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING RAPIDLY AND JULIETTE IS
BARELY A HURRICANE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN AS IT EDGES TOWARD COOLER WATER AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
 
JULIETTE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS.  A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
RAPIDLY AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE IN A DAY OR TWO.  THIS WOULD
FORCE JULIETTE TO MOVE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK.  THEREAFTER...THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE A WEAK SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED
WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS.  ON THIS TRACK...JULIETTE WILL BE MOVING ON TRACK
PARALLEL TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS.  ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.
 
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE MAY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/1500Z 23.3N 111.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     29/0000Z 24.0N 111.6W    60 KTS
24HR VT     29/1200Z 24.7N 112.2W    50 KTS
36HR VT     30/0000Z 25.5N 113.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     30/1200Z 26.5N 114.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     01/1200Z 27.0N 115.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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