HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 28 2001
 
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE OVERNIGHT FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE 
HAD RISEN BY 27 MB IN THE 27 HOURS SINCE THE LAST FIX...AND DURING 
THE MISSION THE PRESSURE WAS CONTINUING TO RISE AT ABOUT THE SAME 
RATE.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS 79 KT IN THE NORTHWEST 
QUADRANT ABOUT 70-90 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND THE MAXIMUM WIND BAND 
WAS VERY BROAD.  THIS CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 65 KT AT THE SURFACE 
USING AN 80 PERCENT REDUCTION FOR THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL.  SHIP 
4XFD REPORTED WINDS OF 67 KT AT 0300Z IN THE SAME BAND OF CONVECTION 
WHERE THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE 79 KT WINDS.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 
THEREFORE SET TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THIS INTENSITY IS MUCH 
LESS THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A PRESSURE OF 971 
MB...BUT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE BROAD WINDFIELD.  DEEP CONVECTION 
HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING...EXCEPT IN AN OUTER RAINBAND 
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 
INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  JULIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY 
WEAKEN AS IT EDGES TOWARD COOLER WATER AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

AFTER MOVING NORTHWARD FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS...JULIETTE HAS TURNED 
AND SLOWED A LITTLE...WITH A CURRENT MOTION OF 340/6.  THE CYCLONE 
APPEARS TO HAVE GOTTEN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE 
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO BE DEFLECTED TO THE LEFT.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS 
PLACES THE LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND RIGHT OVER THE BAJA 
PENINSULA.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS FLATTENING OUT.  CONSISTENT WITH THIS 
TREND...BOTH THE AVN AND UKMET DEVELOP A RIDGE TO THE WEST OF 
JULIETTE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST 
LIFTS OUT.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS...AND 
COULD CAUSE JULIETTE TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE...WHICH WOULD INCREASE 
THE RAINFALL THREAT.  THERE IS A SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 
THAT...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL TAKING THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE 
COAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS...AVN...AND NOGAPS-INITIALIZED GFDL HUGGING 
THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE NOGAPS RECENT HISTORY IS THE DIFFERENCE IN 
MY DECISION TO FOLLOW THE LATTER COURSE.  

MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE MAY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 23.1N 111.2W    70 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 23.6N 111.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 24.2N 112.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 24.7N 112.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 25.5N 113.2W    35 KTS
72HR VT     01/0600Z 27.5N 114.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
NNNN