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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 27 2001

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JULIETTE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY 
WEAKEN THIS EVENING.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CENTER...
AND THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO INTERACTION WITH BAJA
CALIFORNIA.  CONVECTION HAS MARKEDLY INCREASED IN A BAND WELL
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
WHERE THE WATER IS STILL VERY WARM.  BASED ON THE OBSERVED
DECAY OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...THE INTENSITY IS DECREASED
TO 75 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/9.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY GIVES NO
OBVIOUS REASON FOR JULIETTE TO FOLLOW THIS TRACK...AS IT APPEARS
TO BE MOVING STRAIGHT INTO A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
PERHAPS THE TAIL END OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. WEST
COAST HAS WEAKENED THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE NORTHWARD TRACK.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE STILL CALLS FOR A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND EVEN WEST UNDER THE RIDGE.  HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS...THE ONLY
MODEL FROM 24 HR AGO THAT ACTUALLY CAPTURED THE NORTHWARD
MOTION...STILL WANTS TO TAKE JULIETTE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF THE
GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...CLIPER...NOGAPS...AND BAMD ARE WELL TO THE
RIGHT OF THE FORECAST AFTER 24 HR.  SOME CONCERN HAS BEEN EXPRESSED
ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF JULIETTE CONTINUING NORTHWARD INTO THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  WHILE SUCH A MOTION
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THE THREE NORTHWARD-MOVING MODELS
ALL SLOW THE STORM AND KEEP IT SOUTH OF 29N AT 72 HR.
 
SHOULD JULIETTE FOLLOW THE FORECAST TRACK...IT SHOULD BRUSH THE
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MOVE INTO THE COLDER WATER WEST OF THE
PENINSULA.  IT WOULD ALSO LIKELY ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR.
THIS WOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING...AND THAT IS THE SCENARIO OF
THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  SHOULD JULIETTE MOVE TO THE RIGHT OF THE
TRACK INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A LOT
LESS WEAKENING.
 
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY MOTION...THE
POSSIBILITY THAT THE CENTER MAY TRACK MORE NORTHWARD THAN
FORECAST...AND THE STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS FORMING OVER THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA.
 
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE MAY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 22.6N 110.7W    75 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 23.6N 110.8W    70 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 24.5N 111.7W    60 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 25.2N 112.6W    50 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 25.8N 113.8W    40 KTS
72HR VT     01/0000Z 26.5N 115.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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