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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU SEP 27 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/7...WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK.  THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND AVN...WHICH ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT...SHOW AN INCREASED THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE LARGE RADIUS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REPORTED BY EARLIER
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
AVN AND GFDL TRACKS...AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
THE UKMET.  ONLY A VERY SMALL ERROR IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WOULD
BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST...SO HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

JULIETTE STILL HAS MULTIPLE EYEWALLS.  THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF DEEP 
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED A LITTLE...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES SUPPORT 90 KT.  THE EARLIER RECON WINDS SUPPORTED A LITTLE 
LESS THAN THAT...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 
90 KT.  WHILE A PRESSURE OF 945 MB WOULD NORMALLY YIELD WINDS OF 115 
TO 120 KT...THE STRUCTURE OF THE WIND FIELD INDICATES THAT THE 
PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL IS BROADLY DISTRIBUTED AND NOT CONCENTRATED 
NEAR THE CORE.  WHILE THE INNER CORE WINDS MAY DROP OFF 
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE EYEWALL CYCLE PROGRESSES...JULIETTES LARGE AND 
RELATIVELY UNIFORM WINDFIELD SHOULD CHANGE MORE SLOWLY.  ONLY A SLOW 
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER 
WATERS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 20.5N 110.6W    90 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 21.5N 111.1W    85 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 22.3N 111.6W    80 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 22.9N 112.2W    70 KTS
48HR VT     29/0600Z 23.5N 113.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     30/0600Z 24.5N 114.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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