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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 26 2001
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THIS
EVENING THAT JULIETTE HAS THREE CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...A RATHER
UNCOMMON OCCURRENCE.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A SPREAD-OUT
WINDFIELD WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KT WELL NORTH OF
THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS...AND A DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION SEEN
IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 95 KT.
THIS MAY BE GENEROUS...BUT SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS STILL
943 MB THERE MAY BE STRONGER WINDS IN AREAS THAT THE AIRCRAFT DID
NOT SAMPLE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/9.  MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE U.S. WEST
COAST SHOULD KEEP JULIETTE ON THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR 24-36 HR.
AFTER THAT TIME...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES RATHER DIVERGENT...WHICH
IS USUALLY A SIGN THAT THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT TO SLOW DOWN.  MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE FAVORS A SLOWING AND TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DUE
TO A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE OUTLIERS SUCH AS THE
NOGAPS...WHICH CALLS FOR A NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THE UKMET...WHICH
CALLS FOR A WESTWARD MOTION.  THE LATTER WOULD END THE THREAT TO
THE COAST...WHILE THE FORMER WOULD TAKE THE CENTER ONSHORE.
 
THE PRESENCE OF THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS SUGGESTS THAT JULIETTE IS
NOT READY FOR ANOTHER SPURT OF INTENSIFICATION.  THE CENTER WILL
LIKELY MOVE OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATER BEFORE THE EYEWALL CYCLE
ENDS AND ANY STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL CALL SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED SOMEWHAT BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND
SHIP DATA.
 
ONCE AGAIN...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THIS
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WOULD REQUIRE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0300Z 19.8N 110.6W    95 KTS
12HR VT     27/1200Z 20.7N 111.4W    90 KTS
24HR VT     28/0000Z 21.8N 112.4W    85 KTS
36HR VT     28/1200Z 22.4N 113.3W    80 KTS
48HR VT     29/0000Z 22.8N 114.1W    70 KTS
72HR VT     30/0000Z 23.5N 116.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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