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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 26 2001
 
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED THAT THE INNER CORE
OF JULIETTE CONSISTS OF TWO CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OF 7 AND 40 NM IN
DIAMETER.  STRONGEST WINDS REPORTED SO FAR...ARE 97 KTS AT FLIGHT
LEVEL.  HOWEVER...FURTHER SAMPLING IS PRESENTLY UNDERWAY AND IF THE
PLANE DOES NOT FIND HIGHER WINDS...THE INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED IN
THE NEXT ADVISORY.  IT IS KNOWN THAT DURING CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
CYCLES...INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS OCCUR.  AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 110 KT AND GRADUAL WEAKENING COULD BEGIN IN A
DAY OR TWO AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES COOLER WATERS.
 
OVERALL MOTION CONTINUES TO REMAIN AT 315/08.  MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TAKING THE CYCLONE ON NORTHWEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE STEERING PATTERN RESULTING FROM A MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH.  IT APPEARS THAT THE
HURRICANE WILL MISS THE TROUGH AND WILL LIKELY RESUME A WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK.  THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO THIS SCENARIO ARE GIVEN BY
THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH TAKES JULIETTE NORTHWARD AND THE UKMET MODEL
WHICH ACCELERATES THE SYSTEM WESTWARD.
 
ONCE AGAIN...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THIS
DANGEROUS HURRICANE WOULD REQUIRE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/2100Z 19.1N 110.1W   110 KTS
12HR VT     27/0600Z 20.1N 110.7W   100 KTS
24HR VT     27/1800Z 21.4N 111.8W    95 KTS
36HR VT     28/0600Z 22.2N 112.8W    90 KTS
48HR VT     28/1800Z 22.7N 113.7W    80 KTS
72HR VT     29/1800Z 23.0N 115.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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