HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED SEP 26 2001
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE DOWN A BIT SINCE
THE LAST RECON AT 21Z...AND ARE NOW 127 KT.  EYEWALL CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH AN OUTER EYEWALL IS TRYING TO FORM.  SINCE THE RECON DATA
EARLIER SHOWED THAT JULIETTE WAS NOT AS STRONG AS THE
CONTEMPORANEOUS DVORAK ESTIMATE...I AM LOWERING THE INTENSITY TO 120
KT...AND I SUSPECT THAT THE WINDS ARE EVEN A LITTLE LESS.

THE HURRICANE IS WOBBLING AROUND A TRACK OF 310/8...WHICH IS TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THERE IS CURRENTLY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A
STRONG TROUGH WEST OF THE U.S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  LARGE-SCALE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE
EASTWARD AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD CALIFORNIA.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE AVN AND UKMET INDICATE THAT BY 72 
HOURS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND ALLOWS RIDGING TO RE-ESTABLISH NORTH 
OF JULIETTE.  THIS RESULTS IN A TURN TO THE WEST IN BOTH OF THESE 
MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY 
THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT BENDS THE TRACK TO THE LEFT BY DAY THREE.

SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH WOULD NOT BE UNEXPECTED IF AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURS.  IN THE LONGER TERM...JULIETTE
SHOULD MOVE OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATER AND BEING WEAKENING.
HOWEVER...THE HIGH INTENSITY...LARGE SIZE...AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT ALL SUGGEST THAT THIS STORM SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWER THAN
MANY STORMS IN THIS AREA.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 17.7N 108.7W   120 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 18.4N 109.7W   120 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 19.8N 110.8W   115 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 21.1N 111.9W   110 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 22.0N 113.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 23.0N 115.0W    75 KTS
 
 
NNNN