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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 25 2001
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW THE CLASSIC PRESENTATION
OF A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE. THE EYE IS EXTREMELY WELL-DEFINED AND
ESTIMATED TO BE 15 N MI IN DIAMETER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE...120 KT...MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT A
HIGHER WIND SPEED...HOWEVER AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS
YESTERDAY SHOWED THAT THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAD A HIGH BIAS.
ANOTHER AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JULIETTE LATER
TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD GIVE A BETTER GAUGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
HURRICANE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO INNER CORE VARIABILITY...E.G.
EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS...ARE POSSIBLE.
THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/9. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SHOW THAT
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH TO THE NORTH OF JULIETTE SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO
TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BECAUSE OF THE MORE WESTWARD
INITIAL MOTION AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODEL
FORECAST TRACKS.
SINCE THE CENTER IS NOW PASSING WEST OF THE LONGITUDE OF CABO
CORRIENTES...WARNINGS ARE BEING DISCONTINUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS NOT OFF THE HOOK YET.
INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/1500Z 16.3N 106.7W 120 KTS
12HR VT 26/0000Z 17.1N 107.9W 120 KTS
24HR VT 26/1200Z 18.3N 109.3W 115 KTS
36HR VT 27/0000Z 19.5N 110.5W 110 KTS
48HR VT 27/1200Z 20.8N 111.4W 110 KTS
72HR VT 28/1200Z 23.0N 113.0W 95 KTS
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