[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 25 2001

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW THE CLASSIC PRESENTATION 
OF A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE.  THE EYE IS EXTREMELY WELL-DEFINED AND 
ESTIMATED TO BE 15 N MI IN DIAMETER.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATE...120 KT...MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT A 
HIGHER WIND SPEED...HOWEVER AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS 
YESTERDAY SHOWED THAT THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAD A HIGH BIAS.  
ANOTHER AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JULIETTE LATER 
TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD GIVE A BETTER GAUGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE 
HURRICANE.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY 
OR SO...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO INNER CORE VARIABILITY...E.G. 
EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS...ARE POSSIBLE. 
 
THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND INITIAL 
MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/9.  LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SHOW THAT 
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH TO THE NORTH OF JULIETTE SHOULD SHIFT 
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO 
TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
TRACK IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BECAUSE OF THE MORE WESTWARD 
INITIAL MOTION AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODEL 
FORECAST TRACKS.  

SINCE THE CENTER IS NOW PASSING WEST OF THE LONGITUDE OF CABO
CORRIENTES...WARNINGS ARE BEING DISCONTINUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS NOT OFF THE HOOK YET.
INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 16.3N 106.7W   120 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 17.1N 107.9W   120 KTS
24HR VT     26/1200Z 18.3N 109.3W   115 KTS
36HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 110.5W   110 KTS
48HR VT     27/1200Z 20.8N 111.4W   110 KTS
72HR VT     28/1200Z 23.0N 113.0W    95 KTS
 
 
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