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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE SEP 25 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT JULIETTE HAS CONTINUED
TO STRENGTHEN BASED ON A 10NM DIAMETER EYE EMBEDDED WELL INTO A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF -75C TO -82C TEMPERATURES.  THE VERY
CONSERVATIVE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KT...T7.0...FROM
TAFB...AN ESTIMATE OF 115 KT...T6.0...FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND A 3-HR
AVERAGE OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 140 KT...ODT7.0.  THE
INTENSITY WAS HELD DOWN BELOW THE ODT VALUES AND THE TAFB ESTIMATE
ONLY BECAUSE RECON WILL BE OUT TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AROUND
1800Z TODAY.  JULIETTE IS POSSIBLY STRONGER THAN THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY IS INDICATING AND RECON WILL PROBABLY BEAR THIS OUT LATER
TODAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/07.  THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALL 
SHIFTED TO THE LEFT SIDE OF THE NHC MODEL ENVELOPE...WITH THE UKMET 
MODEL THE FARTHEST LEFT AND THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS ALMOST ON TOP 
OF EACH OTHER.  THE GFDL HAS ALSO SHIFTED TO THE LEFT CLOSE TO THE 
AVN-NOGAPS CONSENSUS.  THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS KEEP JULIETTE ABOUT 
100 NM SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE 
GFDN HAS MAINTAINED A CONSISTENT TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS 
THE CYCLONE INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48 
TO 60 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC 
MODEL ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE 2 PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS...AND 
JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDN SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS JULIETTE CLOSE TO 
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 60 TO 72 HOURS AS A 
POSSIBLE MAJOR HURRICANE.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY.  JULIETTE HAS SHOWN A 
PROPENSITY FOR STRENGTHENING AT NIGHT...ONLY TO WEAKEN DURING THE 
DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE RECON CAN GET OUT THERE.  NOW THAT JULIETTE IS 
MOVING AGAIN...THE EFFECTS FROM COLD WATER UPWELLING THAT MAY HAVE 
OCCURRED YESTERDAY AND POSSIBLY BROUGHT ABOUT THE SIGNIFICANT 
WEAKENING SHOULD BE LESSENED. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN EXCELLENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND...THEREFORE...SOME 
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HOURS.  
AFTER THAT...SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO 
MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER. NOTE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY 
THAT JULIETTE COULD UNDERGO ANOTHER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING 
THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING RATHER THAN 
STRENGTHENING...JUST ABOUT THE TIME RECON GETS OUT THERE AGAIN.
 
JULIETTE REMAINS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 16.2N 105.5W   115 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 16.9N 106.3W   125 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 17.9N 107.3W   120 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 19.1N 108.2W   115 KTS
48HR VT     27/0600Z 20.2N 109.1W   105 KTS
72HR VT     28/0600Z 22.6N 110.5W    95 KTS
 
 
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