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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON SEP 24 2001
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...JULIETTE HAS UNDERGONE ANOTHER PERIOD OF
STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE RE-APPEARANCE OF A WELL-DEFINED
10NM DIAMETER EYE IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...-75C TO -80C...SURROUNDING THE EYE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KT...T6.0...FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...AN ESTIMATE OF 102 KT...T5.5...FROM AFWA...AND A 3-HR AVERAGE
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 125 KT...ODT6.4. THE
INTENSITY WAS HELD DOWN BELOW THE ODT VALUES AND THE TAFB AND SAB
ESTIMATES TO ALLOW THE WIND FIELD TO CATCH UP WITH THE SATELLITE
SIGNATURE...SIMILAR TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/06. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO WEST...EXCEPT FOR NOGAPS. THE UKMET AND
AVN MODELS ARE THE FARTHEST TO THE LEFT AND VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER
...WHILE NOGAPS IS NOW THE FARTHEST MODEL TO THE RIGHT. THE UKMET
AND AVN MODELS KEEP JULIETTE WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHEREAS THE NOGAPS MODEL TAKES JULIETTE INTO THE GULF
OF CALIFORNIA IN 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS ARE ALMOST
IDENTICAL IN THEIR TRACKS AND ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE
SUITE. THEY BRING THE HURRICANE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN BAJA IN 60 TO
72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL-GFDN CONSENSUS...ONLY A
LITTLE SLOWER OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SLOWER AVN AND UKMET MODELS.
NOW THAT JULIETTE IS NO LONGER STATIONARY LIKE LAST NIGHT...SOME
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WAS KEPT STEADY THROUGH 24 HOURS UNTIL A PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS SIMILAR
TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS JULIETTE AFTER 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...PART OF THE WEAKENING BIAS IS DUE TO THE INTENSITY
PERSISTENCE PARAMETER WHICH WAS A LARGE NEGATIVE FACTOR IN THE 18Z
AND 00Z FORECASTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE
FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH AT LEAST 36 HOURS...AND THE NEXT ADVISORY
MAY HAVE TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AS ALLUDED TO IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY NUMBER 15 FORECAST DISCUSSION.
JULIETTE REMAINS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0300Z 15.7N 105.0W 105 KTS
12HR VT 25/1200Z 16.3N 105.9W 105 KTS
24HR VT 26/0000Z 17.3N 106.9W 105 KTS
36HR VT 26/1200Z 18.3N 107.8W 100 KTS
48HR VT 27/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W 95 KTS
72HR VT 28/0000Z 21.2N 109.5W 90 KTS
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