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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON SEP 24 2001
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE OF 957 MB IN THE EYE AND A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 94
KTS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE HURRICANE AS IT HEADED FOR HOME.
REDUCTION FROM FLIGHT LEVEL ALTITUDE TO THE SURFACE WOULD GIVE A
MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT 85 TO 90 KTS.  THEREFORE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 90 KTS.  IF THE SYSTEM IS GOING 
THROUGH AN EYEWALL CYCLE THAN SOME STRENGTHENING COULD BE POSSIBLE 
IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SHIPS WANTS TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BUT PART OF 
THE INPUT TO SHIPS IS PERSISTENCE WHICH IS A LARGE NEGATIVE FACTOR 
IN THE 18Z FORECAST.  THIS NEGATIVE FACTOR WAS INTRODUCED BY THE 
SHARP REDUCTION IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE RECON DATA.  THE BEST COURSE 
OF ACTION IS TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS INVARIANT THROUGH 72 HOURS 
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/04.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW 
SHIFTING TOWARD THE WEST... SUGGESTING THAT THE WEAK RIDGE TO THE 
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM MAY BE STRONGER THAN WAS INITIALLY FORECAST.  
THE AVN AND NOGAPS ARE WEST OF THE OFFICIAL AND THE GFDL REMAINS TO 
THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

JULIETTE REMAINS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 15.4N 104.5W    90 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 16.0N 105.5W    90 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 17.0N 106.7W    90 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 18.1N 107.7W    90 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 19.5N 108.5W    90 KTS
72HR VT     27/1800Z 20.9N 109.4W    90 KTS
 
 
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