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HURRICANE JULIETTE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM PDT MON SEP 24 2001
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE OF 959 MB AND A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 90 KTS ON THE 
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED 
TO 100 KTS.  THE AIRCRAFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF 
THE HURRICANE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND 
WILL LIKELY BE MEASURED.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AT 285/03.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN
AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER FORECASTING JULIETTE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 72 HOURS. THE ONLY OUTLIER IS THE GFDL
MODEL WHICH TAKES JULIETTE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST.  HOWEVER...THE
GFDL MODEL SOMETIMES HAS DIFFICULTIES WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN
CAUSING A BIAS IN THE TRACK FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
JULIETTE REMAINS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1800Z 15.2N 104.2W   100 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 15.6N 104.5W   100 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W    95 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 17.6N 106.5W    90 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N 107.4W    90 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 21.2N 108.0W    90 KTS
 
 
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