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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON SEP 24 2001
JULIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 127 KT...T6.5...FROM TAFB...A 3-HOUR AVERAGE
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 127 KT...ODT6.5...AND A SMALL
PINHOLE EYE DIAMETER OF ABOUT 5 NM. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS VERY
SYMMETRICAL AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/03...BASED ON AN EXPECTED
RESUMPTION OF A WESTWARD COURSE. DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...JULIETTE
HAS ACTUALLY REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A GENERAL MOTION TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY. THERE IS
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONVERGENCE AMONG THE NHC MODELS. NOGAPS
IS BACK IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE THIS MODEL RUN...AND
EVEN THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS KEEP JULIETTE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE FIRST TIME. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF ALL THE
MODELS IS A MOTION TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OR THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN 72 TO 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE
TO THE LEFT TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO AVN-UKMET-NOGAPS
CONSENSUS.
THE LAST FEW SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT TOPS HAVE WARMED
SLIGHTLY AROUND THE EYE AND ALSO SUGGEST THAT JULIETTE MAY BE GOING
THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF VERY
INTENSE HURRICANES LIKE THIS ONE. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS
JULIETTE UP TO 137 KT IN 12 HOURS AND 139 KT IN 24 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT SLIGHTLY
LOWER DUE TO POSSIBLE COLD WATER UPWELLING OCCURRING BENEATH THE
CYCLONE SINCE JULIETTE IS ONLY FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER
AFTER THAT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE
CYCLONE AROUND 1800Z TODAY AND FINALLY PROVIDE SOME GROUND TRUTH ON
THE TRUE INTENSITY OF THIS HURRICANE.
JULIETTE REMAINS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/0900Z 14.9N 103.6W 125 KTS
12HR VT 24/1800Z 15.4N 104.2W 135 KTS
24HR VT 25/0600Z 16.0N 105.0W 130 KTS
36HR VT 25/1800Z 16.9N 105.9W 125 KTS
48HR VT 26/0600Z 18.1N 106.9W 120 KTS
72HR VT 27/0600Z 21.0N 107.8W 115 KTS
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