ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2001 JULIETTE HAS DEVELOPED A PINHOLE EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE 100 KNOTS. BOTH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. JULIETTE HAS RESUMED ITS WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH PLACE JULIETTE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...AND THE FACT THAT ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST AT THIS TIME. JULIETTE IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 15.0N 103.2W 100 KTS 12HR VT 24/0600Z 15.5N 104.0W 100 KTS 24HR VT 24/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W 105 KTS 36HR VT 25/0600Z 18.0N 106.0W 110 KTS 48HR VT 25/1800Z 18.5N 107.0W 110 KTS 72HR VT 26/1800Z 20.5N 107.5W 100 KTS NNNN