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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2001
 
JULIETTE HAS DEVELOPED A PINHOLE EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE CENTRAL 
DENSE OVERCAST AND PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE 100 KNOTS. BOTH ATMOSPHERIC AND 
OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. 
 
JULIETTE HAS RESUMED ITS WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THE 
HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARD THE 
NORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE CAUSED BY AN 
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE 
DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH PLACE JULIETTE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.

UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...AND THE FACT THAT ONLY A SMALL
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST AT THIS
TIME.  

JULIETTE IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 15.0N 103.2W   100 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 15.5N 104.0W   100 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W   105 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N 106.0W   110 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 18.5N 107.0W   110 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 20.5N 107.5W   100 KTS
 
 
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