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HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2001
 
VIS AND IR IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIETTE HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THERE ARE PLENTY OF 
BANDING FEATURES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS AT THIS 
TIME. THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM..SO ADDITIONAL 
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A 
DANGEROUS HURRICANE. 

NOW THAT THE EYE IS VISIBLE...THERE IS A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE
LOCATION AND INITIAL MOTION OF THE HURRICANE.  JULIETTE IS MOVING
280 ABOUT 8 KNOTS.  THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 500 MB HIGH TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF JULIETTE IN COMBINATION WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF
A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY
FORCE JULIETTE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK
ENSEMBLE...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LASTEST GFDL RUNS BRING THE
HURRICANE ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD MEXICO.

UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...AND THE FACT THAT ONLY A SMALL 
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO 
THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE 
WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST AT THIS TIME. WATCHES OR WARNINGS 
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD GRADUALLY. 

JULIETTE IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST 
COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 14.8N 102.8W    80 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W    85 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W    95 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 17.0N 105.5W   100 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W   100 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 20.5N 108.0W   100 KTS
 
 
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