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TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2001
 
JULIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED.  A SMALL CDO HAS 
FORMED AND A WEAK WARM SPOT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CENTER OF THE 
CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.  MICROWAVE DATA FROM A 0319Z SSMI AND A 0331Z 
TRMM OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT A CLOSED EYE HAS FORMED IN THE 
LOW-LEVELS AND A PARTIAL EYEWALL HAS FORMED IN THE MID-LEVELS.  THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE INFORMATION AND 
A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 TO 60 KT...T3.5...FROM 
BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS AND THE 
OVERALL OUTFLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/08. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING OR TRACK.  NOW THAT A 
BETTER DEFINED CENTER CAN BE IDENTIFIED...THERE SHOULD BE LESS 
JUMPING AROUND IN THE ADVISORY POSITIONS AND BETTER CONTINUITY 
BETWEEN FORECAST TRACKS.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AREA IN EXCELLENT 
AGREEMENT ON TAKING JULIETTE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH 24 TO 36 
HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY TURNING IT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 48 HOURS... 
AND THEN NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A 
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND IS 
BETWEEN THE AVN AND UKMET MODEL TRACKS...WHICH WERE VERY CLOSE TO 
EACH OTHER FROM THE 00Z RUNS.  THE NOGAPS MODEL CROSSES BACK AND 
FORTH ACROSS THE AVN-UKMET CONSENSUS...SO THERE IS REASONABLY HIGH 
CONFIDENCE THAT JULIETTE WILL TRACK CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST BY 
72 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND GFDN WERE IGNORED SINCE THEY HAVE CONTINUED 
THEIR RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS AND TAKE THE CYCLONE INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST 
MEXICO NEAR ZIHUATANEJO IN 48 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS EXCESSIVE GIVEN 
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE 
OTHER AVAILABLE NHC MODELS.

STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND 
JULIETTE MAY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE SHIPS 
INTENSITY MODEL...AS WELL AS ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...CONTINUES TO 
INDICATE THAT JULIETTE WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKELY SHEARED...LESS THAN 
10 KT...UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  AS A RESULT...I HAVE GONE A LITTLE 
ABOVE THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST OF 91 AND 93 KT AT 48 HOURS AND 
72 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH JULIETTE ALREADY 
HAVING A SMALL TIGHT INNER-CORE... AND AN EXPECTED TRACK OVER 29C TO 
30C SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. 

THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY AT ALL TIMES.  AS A RESULT... 
WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF 
THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF MANZANILLO.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0900Z 14.8N 101.7W    60 KTS
12HR VT     23/1800Z 15.4N 102.8W    70 KTS
24HR VT     24/0600Z 16.2N 104.1W    80 KTS
36HR VT     24/1800Z 17.1N 105.1W    90 KTS
48HR VT     25/0600Z 18.2N 106.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     26/0600Z 20.0N 107.0W   100 KTS
 
 
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