ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2001
JULIETTE CONTINUES TO THE WEST...AT 270/15. THIS LESSENS THE
PRESENT THREAT TO THE COAST AND WATCHES/WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERED.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...WHICH HAS HAD A CHRONIC NORTHWARD
BIAS IN THE EAST PACIFIC GENERALLY AND WITH JULIETTE SO FAR...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT APPROACH THE
COAST FOR AT LEAST 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTH
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. INTERESTS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIETTE AS WATCHES OR
WARNINGS COULD WELL BE REQUIRED AGAIN TOMORROW.
ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35
KT...RESPECTIVELY...RECON DATA YESTERDAY SHOWED THAT THE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE IS NOT WORKING WELL WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL
GUIDANCE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE AVN DOES NOT SHOW NEARLY AS
MUCH INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS RESPONDING TO
ANTICIPATED LOW SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATER.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/1500Z 13.6N 99.7W 50 KTS
12HR VT 23/0000Z 14.0N 101.4W 55 KTS
24HR VT 23/1200Z 14.3N 103.0W 65 KTS
36HR VT 24/0000Z 14.8N 104.2W 75 KTS
48HR VT 24/1200Z 15.5N 105.0W 85 KTS
72HR VT 25/1200Z 17.5N 106.5W 95 KTS
NNNN
Problems?