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TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2001
 
JULIETTE CONTINUES TO THE WEST...AT 270/15.  THIS LESSENS THE 
PRESENT THREAT TO THE COAST AND WATCHES/WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERED.  
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...WHICH HAS HAD A CHRONIC NORTHWARD 
BIAS IN THE EAST PACIFIC GENERALLY AND WITH JULIETTE SO FAR...MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT APPROACH THE 
COAST FOR AT LEAST 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTH 
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  INTERESTS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST SHOULD 
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIETTE AS WATCHES OR 
WARNINGS COULD WELL BE REQUIRED AGAIN TOMORROW.

ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35 
KT...RESPECTIVELY...RECON DATA YESTERDAY SHOWED THAT THE DVORAK 
TECHNIQUE IS NOT WORKING WELL WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE 
PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL 
GUIDANCE.  IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE AVN DOES NOT SHOW NEARLY AS 
MUCH INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS RESPONDING TO 
ANTICIPATED LOW SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATER.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 13.6N  99.7W    50 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 14.0N 101.4W    55 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 14.3N 103.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 14.8N 104.2W    75 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 15.5N 105.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 17.5N 106.5W    95 KTS
 
 
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