ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 21 2001
RADAR FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO SHOWS THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF
JULIETTE PASSING TO ITS SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS NOT AS DEEP AS
EARLIER TODAY. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS
LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM SO STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS
JULIETTE TO 100 KNOTS BY 60 HOURS.
JULIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16
KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
SO JULIETTE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CORE
OF JULIETTE ON A TRACK PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER
...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT WOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE
COAST. WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MEXICO HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE BRINGING AN EASTWARD MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. THIS PATTERN COULD STEER JULIETTE
NORTHWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA OR EVEN TO THE GULF OF CORTES. THIS
IS THE SOLUTION OF THE GFDL AND THE LATEST AVN. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIETTE.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0300Z 14.0N 96.6W 50 KTS
12HR VT 22/1200Z 14.5N 99.0W 55 KTS
24HR VT 23/0000Z 15.3N 101.2W 65 KTS
36HR VT 23/1200Z 16.0N 103.0W 75 KTS
48HR VT 24/0000Z 17.0N 104.5W 85 KTS
72HR VT 25/0000Z 18.0N 106.5W 95 KTS
NNNN
Problems?