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TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 21 2001
 
DATA FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN 2 
MB OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS 52 KT... 
REDUCING TO ABOUT 40 KTS AT THE SURFACE. THE STEPPED FREQUENCY 
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...REPORTED AN AREA OF 60 KT SURFACE 
WINDS ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE VORTEX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
INCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THIS DATA.
 
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 72 
HOURS. THE WATER IS QUITE WARM AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR 
INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. THIS IS ALSO IN CLOSE 
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

JULIETTE IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD KEEP 
THE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 
285/17...HOWEVER...THIS FORWARD SPEED SHOULD DECREASE AS THE RIDGE 
TO THE NORTH WEAKENS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING EAST PACIFIC 
TROUGH LATE IN THE FORECAST. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL 
AND AVN FORECASTS...BUT THE UKMET FORWARD SPEED IS MUCH SLOWER.
 
FORECASTER HOLWEG/LAWRENCE
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 13.7N  94.9W    50 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 14.3N  97.2W    55 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 14.9N  99.6W    60 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.8N 101.8W    65 KTS
48HR VT     23/1800Z 16.6N 103.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     24/1800Z 18.0N 106.0W    85 KTS
 
 
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